Modeling long-term emissions reductions

By Sarah Kearney

The increasing flow of capital into climate solutions offers a chance to avoid the most catastrophic climate scenarios. Increased investor focus on modeling the long-term impact of climate technologies can better inform these long-term bets on the future.

Since I founded Prime Coalition in 2014, there’s been a groundswell of investment in climate innovation. Alongside these private sector activities, the latest $1 trillion infrastructure package passing the Senate with provisions for climate mitigation and Department of Energy demonstration projects gives me hopes that humanity might be able to mobilize to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, to stay below 1.5 ºC of warming and avert early catastrophes. I have hope.

But the magnitude of the challenge — or opportunity, depending how you look at it — is incredibly daunting. We need to cut 70 Gigatons of GHG emissions annually by 2050, which is at least 35 times all wind power ever deployed. And as the infrastructure bill climbs an uphill battle of political will to get signed into law while also leaving out many elements to combat climate change, we slip away from reaching our global goals. At the current emissions rate, we’ll fail even if all the climate technologies that exist today have the opportunity to realize their potential. The latest IPCC report paints a more dire picture than ever of the painful long-term consequences of our failure to act fast.

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